Hope for the future?

Many of my friends and colleagues have found solace in the mantra that the future will be bright for Democrats because demographic trends are with us. As noted early and often by Ruy Teixeira, natural Democratic constituencies such as minorities and youth are growing, while the Republican base of white evangelicals and older voters is shrinking or stagnating. Will good things come to liberals who wait?

Well, after reviewing the exit polls this year I'm not so sure that a passive strategy will do it for progressives. Hispanics are the fastest growing minority in this country, soon to be the majority in many Southwestern states. They voted in record numbers this year, but Bush got 9% more of the Hispanic vote than he did in 2000. Did Karl Rove succeed in driving the gay marriage wedge into the Hispanic vote? That isn't clear right now, and it isn't clear that any long-term conservative strategy to woo Hispanic voters on social issues will succeed to any significant degree. But we know that the Republican strategists know as much as Ruy Teixeira about demographic trends and its safe to say they aren't planning to sit back let their majority slip away.